Cash Reality Determination

13-week cash governance, plus a 3-way model to test what happens next.

Underperformance becomes dangerous when cash timing turns against you. Revenue can rise and the business still fails.

This service makes cash reality explicit, then tests whether proposed fixes stay cash-safe — before you scale pressure.

Profitability does not override cash timing.

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Fit check only — no advice, no pitch.
Cash flow planning
The problem

When growth makes cash worse

Owners and directors often discover the hard way that “more sales” can create a faster failure: more stock, more labour, more WIP, slower collections — and less cash.

Common signs
  • payroll, GST/PAYE, or suppliers become weekly negotiations
  • the P&L says “okay”, but the bank account says “no”
  • you’re busy, but cash doesn’t appear when it should
  • every decision feels urgent because runway is unclear

The Cash Reality Determination exists to remove guesswork and make the next 13 weeks governable.

Director review
Model structure
What this is

A cash-first reality model you can govern

This is a director-grade model built for decision-making — not a spreadsheet for its own sake. We use two lenses:

  • 13-week cash view to govern runway, timing, and obligations
  • 3-way model (P&L, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) to reveal working capital traps and step-cost triggers
We model the cash machine, not just the story.
So fixes are tested against cash impact before they proceed.

This service often supports a Viability Determination or serves as the evidence base before a Performance Fix Sprint.

What we test

Will the fix stay cash-safe?

Runway and timing

What must be paid, when, and what happens to runway if receipts slip or costs step up.

Working capital drag

Debtors, inventory, WIP, deposits, GST timing — where growth quietly consumes cash.

Constraint realism

Whether the business can actually deliver the improved plan without creating the next bottleneck.

The rule
We don’t approve changes that “look profitable” but collapse cash. The fix must pass cash timing, capacity realism, and working capital impact.
What you receive

Decision outputs you can use

You receive clear cash guardrails, sensitivity points, and a written brief suitable for directors, lenders, and advisors.

Included outputs
  • 13-week cash governance view (timing, obligations, runway)
  • 3-way model insights (P&L, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow linkages)
  • working capital and step-cost triggers made explicit
  • cash-safe conditions and “hard stop” boundaries
  • plain-English interpretation (so you can brief stakeholders)
  • options framed as decisions, not a list of initiatives
Financial model
Where it fits

The bridge between determination and fixing

If a Viability Determination answers “should we continue?”, the Cash Reality Determination answers “what happens to cash if we do — and what must be true for fixes to remain safe?”

When improvement is viable, this becomes the baseline test for Performance Fix Sprints and turnaround execution.

View Performance Fix Sprint
Fit

Who this is for

  • owners and directors who need a governable 13-week cash view
  • businesses where growth or “fixes” could trigger a cash squeeze
  • situations involving refinancing, covenant pressure, or stakeholder scrutiny
  • teams preparing for a Performance Fix Sprint or Turnaround & Stabilisation

Who this is not for

  • –businesses wanting a “forecast” without accountability to reality
  • –situations where key records cannot be produced at all
  • –those seeking comfort instead of evidence
Quiet corridor
FAQ

Common questions

It includes a 13-week cash view, but the point is governance: timing, obligations, sensitivities, and runway. The 3-way lens adds balance sheet and working capital reality so “profitable” changes don’t quietly burn cash.

You receive decision outputs and a written brief. Where appropriate, we can provide a simplified governance version. The purpose is decision safety and accountability — not a spreadsheet handover that becomes ungoverned.

Basic bank position, obligations, receipts timing, payroll/tax timing, and a recent P&L and balance sheet. If records are incomplete, we’ll confirm the minimum needed to proceed safely.
Contact

Request a Fit Check

A short fit check to confirm whether a Cash Reality Determination is the right next step. No advice. No pitch.

Typical starting point
If your next 13 weeks feel uncertain — or growth is creating pressure — this is the safest way to restore control.
Serving NZ and AU. Fixed-fee. Non-contingent.
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